Yates: How to Expect the Unexpected

Summary: How to Expect the Unexpected by Yates . (Stub — expand from highlights.)

Sources: quotes_batch_27.md

Quote pages: Yates – How to Expect the Unexpected

Last updated: 2026-05-07

Quotes

Concept

“The concept of ‘probability’ is our only defense against a universe that is inherently chaotic and indifferent to our plans.” (p. 12)

Behavior

“We behave as if the past is a perfect predictor of the future, a bias that leaves us blind to ‘Black Swan’ events.” (p. 56)

Game Theory

“Strategic forecasting is a game of managing uncertainty; you win not by being right, but by being less wrong than everyone else.” (p. 134)

Cognition

“Our cognition is trapped by ‘heuristics’—mental shortcuts that allow for fast decisions but often lead to predictable errors.” (p. 82)

Memory

“We remember the hits and forget the misses, a trick of memory that gives us a false sense of our own predictive powers.” (p. 198)