Taleb – The Black Swan

Book page: taleb-black-swan

From: Quotes batch 24

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Concept

“A Black Swan is an event with three attributes: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.” (p. xxii)

Behavior

“Our behavior is plagued by the ‘Ludic Fallacy’—the belief that the randomness of real life resembles the controlled randomness of games.” (p. 125)

Game Theory

“In a world of Black Swans, the best strategy is not to predict, but to build systems that are ‘anti-fragile’ and can benefit from volatility.” (p. 210)

Cognition

“The ‘Narrative Fallacy’ is our cognitive inability to look at a sequence of facts without weaving an explanation into them.” (p. 63)

Memory

“We remember the successful and the visible, creating a ‘silent evidence’ bias that distorts our understanding of probability.” (p. 101)