Duke — “Outcomes don’t tell us what’s our fault and…”

Source: Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts — Annie Duke

Book page: duke-thinking-in-bets-part-1

From: Thinking in Bets — Quotes

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Outcomes don’t tell us what’s our fault and what isn’t, what we should take credit for and what we shouldn’t. Unlike in chess, we can’t simply work backward from the quality of the outcome to determine the quality of our beliefs or decisions. This makes learning from outcomes a pretty haphazard process.